Analysis of climate variability and its economic impact on agricultural crops: The case of Arsi Negelle District, Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

by Open Science Repository Agriculture
(July 2013)

Abstract

This study was conducted to analyze climate variability and its economic impact on agricultural crop productivity in Arsi Negelle district - Central Rift Valley region in Ethiopia. The study analyzed observed climate variability, downscaled future projection (2046–2065 periods) with reference to base line data from years 1981-2009 by using self-organising map downscaling (SOMD) technique. In addition, the study has employed Ricardian approach to analyze marginal effects of temperature and rainfall on agricultural crop productivity based on farm data generated from 174 farmers. Annual crop net revenue was regressed on climate, soil and socio-economic variables. The result obtained from metrology data indicated that in the study area, climate variability has been observed and the minimum temperature found to be more variable than maximum temperature does. While rainfall found to be more variable in Langano than in Arsi Negelle stations in the period from 1981 to 2009. Result obtained from simulation analysis for the future period indicated that significant climate variability is expected to be observed for the projection period from 2046 to 2065. Detailed analysis of rainfall projection has shown that, main rainy season is expected to decrease, while short rainy season that runs from March to May is expected to increase. Regressing of net revenue was found that climate have a significant impact on the farmers’ net revenue per hectare. As a 1°C increase in temperature during the main rainy and dry seasons reduced the net revenue by 5179.65 and 704.19 Birr per hectare respectively. On the other hand, a 1°C increase in temperature marginally during the short rainy seasons was found to increase the net revenue per hectare by 1081.81 and 1542.65 Birr respectively. An increasing precipitation by 1 mm during the main rainy and dry seasons reduced the net revenue per hectare by 1184.00 and 328.90 Birr respectively. Result obtained from interviewing of households indicated that farmers were aware of the occurrence of climate variability and changes hence devised adaptation strategies in response to it. The overall finding from the study suggests that there is a need to support farmers’ adaptation capacity and improve their crop production efficiency to overcome future scenarios of climate change impacts.

Keywords: climate variability, marginal effect, downscaling, Arsi Negelle, adaptation and perception.

Full text

Analysis of climate variability and its economic impact on agricultural crops: The case of Arsi Negelle District, Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia