Agricultural Landuse Changes Under Climate Variability in Thailand

by Open Science Repository Agriculture
(January 2014)

Abstract

Climate variability and landuse change are interlinked. This study deals with assessment of impact of climate variability on agricultural land use change (agricultural area and yield) through statistical modeling in Ping Basin. The period for agricultural area change covers between 1990 and 2009 while yield is analysed under current (1981-2009) and future scenarios (2011-59). There was significant correlation between climate variables and agricultural area in Middle Ping, Lower Ping, and Ping Basin but no significant correlation in Upper Ping. Statistical modeling to quantify impact of climate variability on agricultural landuse area change showed that there was significant change (R=0.46, R²=21.1%, P=0.041) in agricultural landuse area between 1990 and 2009 in Ping Basin. Future projected climate variability will favour rice production with significant increasing yield trend. Rice yield projected at 5-year interval shows sharp increment (R²=0.91) with drastic rise through time indicating that future climate variability will have a significant positive impact in the future. The future period (2050) shows 31.3 % yield increment due to future climate variability over the current baseline period (2010).

Keywords: climate variability, agriculture, landuse, statistical modeling, projection.

Full text

Agricultural Landuse Changes Under Climate Variability in Thailand